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'''Navigation:''' [[Main_Page]] > [[Deals]] > Win Probability
'''Navigation:''' [[Main_Page]] > [[Deals]] > [[Deal Settings]] > Win Probability


== Win Probability: Predicting Which Deals Are Most Likely to Win ==
= Win Probability: Predicting which deals are most likely to win =


In the world of sales, understanding which deals are most likely to be won is crucial for prioritizing efforts and resources. The '''Win Probability''' feature within ActiveCampaign serves as a powerful tool in this regard. By providing a percentage that indicates the likelihood of a deal closing successfully, it helps teams focus on the deals that matter most to their business. With accurate metrics in hand, you can streamline your sales approach, improve productivity, and ultimately increase revenue.
== Introduction ==
The '''Win Probability''' feature in ActiveCampaign is a powerful tool designed for sales teams to assess and prioritize deals based on their likelihood of closing successfully. With this feature, users can easily see a percentage value that signifies how likely a deal is to be won, enabling better allocation of time and resources to deals that have the highest chances of success. This predictive capability is crucial for effective sales strategies, ensuring that efforts are focused on the most promising opportunities, thereby optimizing the sales process and increasing revenue.


== How to Access Win Probability Settings ==
== How to Access Win Probability Settings ==
To access the settings for '''Win Probability''', follow these steps:
1. Log into your ActiveCampaign account.
2. Navigate to the '''Deals''' section by selecting it from the left menu.
3. Click on '''Deal Settings'''.
4. At the bottom of the page, you will find the '''Win Probability''' box, where you can access and configure the different settings for your pipelines.


To access the '''Win Probability''' settings for your pipelines, follow these steps:
== Step-by-Step Instructions ==
Here is a detailed guide on configuring the '''Win Probability''' settings for your pipeline:


1. Navigate to the left menu and click on '''Deals'''.
1. **Access Deal Settings**: As mentioned above, go to '''Deals''' and then click on '''Deal Settings'''.
2. Select '''Deal Settings'''.
2. **Locate Win Probability Box**: Scroll to the bottom of the page to find the '''Win Probability''' section.
3. **Select Pipeline**: Each tab in the '''Win Probability''' box corresponds to a pipeline in your account. You can click on each tab to adjust settings specific to that pipeline.
 
=== Configuration Settings ===
Within the '''Win Probability''' settings, several options can be customized:


Once you are on the '''Deal Settings''' page, the '''Win Probability''' box will be displayed toward the bottom. Each tab in this box represents a pipeline within your account, and each has its own configuration settings that influence the calculation of Win Probability values.
1. **Data Start Date**: This is the date from which deal-specific data starts being collected for Win Probability calculations.
  - Default: The date your pipeline was created.
  - Update: Click into the date field and select a new date from the calendar.
  - Note: After modification, there is up to a 30-minute delay for the new calculations.


== Step-by-Step Instructions for Using Win Probability ==
2. **Sales Cycle Length**: This setting reflects the longest duration it takes for your team to mark deals as Won or Lost.
  - Default: 20 days.
  - Update: Enter a new time duration, selecting from Days, Weeks, Months, or Years.
  - Caution: Setting this too short can lead to important deals being considered Lost if they exceed the established time frame, even if not marked as such.


To effectively utilize the '''Win Probability''' feature, follow these detailed steps:
3. **Win Probability Factors**: A list of factors informs the Win Probability calculations for deals in that pipeline. Typically, over 100 factors exist, but the 20 most relevant will be shown.
  - Default: Factors are turned On.
  - Adjusting: You can toggle specific factors Off if they are determined to be irrelevant to your business.
  - Note: Adjustments may take up to an hour before they reflect in calculations.


1. **Understand Current Setup**: Ensure your current pipelines are set up correctly. Deals marked as '''Won''' or '''Lost''' will not contribute to Win Probability calculations. Each open deal displays the Win Probability percentage in the '''Deal Info''' box.
4. **Create Segments Using Win Probability Values**: You can create targeted segments based on specific Win Probability criteria.
 
  - From the segment builder, go to '''Deal Details''' and select conditions related to '''Win Probability'''.  
2. **Calculate Win Probability**:
   - Use the following operators:
   - The percentage is derived from various factors specific to each pipeline, which can include:
     - Is
     - Number of tasks created.
     - Is not
     - Whether a deal entered a specific stage in the pipeline.
     - Greater than
     - Characteristics such as the contact's email domain.
    - Greater than or equal to
 
    - Less than
3. **Meet the Data Requirements**: To enable accurate calculations, ensure that:
    - Less than or equal to
  - At least '''100-150 deals''' marked as '''Won''' and some as '''Lost''' are available within the pipeline.
  - Closed deals must be correctly labeled to avoid seeing a '''Not yet calculated''' message.
 
4. **Monitor Calculation Updates**: The Win Probability values are updated weekly on Saturdays, and modifications to certain settings may take up to a 30-minute delay to reflect changes.
 
5. **Viewing Win Probability**:
  - For a percentage value between 6% and 94%, the exact value will be displayed.
  - Values of 5% or less will show as '''Less than 5%'''.
  - Values of 95% or more will appear as '''Greater than 95%'''.


== Configuration Options and Settings ==
== Configuration Options and Settings ==
 
Understanding the various configuration settings is essential for optimizing the use of Win Probability. Here are the key points to remember:
The following configuration options and settings are crucial for effectively managing the '''Win Probability''' feature:
- Ensure that closed deals are correctly marked as '''Won''' or '''Lost''' to improve the accuracy of calculations.
 
- Maintain a healthy distribution of deals—ideally, have at least 100-150 deals marked as Won and some marked as Lost to facilitate accurate percentage calculations.
* '''Data Start Date''': This refers to when the system starts collecting relevant data for calculating Win Probability. The default date is when the pipeline was created, but you can adjust this by selecting a new date in the calendar. This change will affect future calculations.
- Acknowledge that deals marked as Won or Lost will no longer influence Win Probability calculations and will show as "Not yet calculated" for future computations.
 
* '''Sales Cycle Length''': This setting represents the longest duration it typically takes to mark deals as either '''Won''' or '''Lost'''. The default setting is 20 days, but you can customize this duration to better fit your sales cycle. Adding a longer sales cycle helps to retain valuable data points.
 
* '''Win Probability Factors''': A curated list of factors influencing the calculation of Win Probability values. You have more than 100 factors in total, but the most impactful 20 are displayed. These factors can be toggled on or off based on their relevance to your business. Changing these factors may take up to an hour to update calculations.
 
* '''Segmenting with Win Probability Values''': You can create segments based on specific Win Probability values or ranges. Utilize the segment builder by navigating to '''Deal Details > Has deal with Win Probability''' and choose from operators like:
  * Is
  * Is not
  * Greater than
  * Greater than or equal to
  * Less than
  * Less than or equal to


== Best Practices and Tips ==
== Best Practices and Tips ==
To make the most of the '''Win Probability''' feature:
- Regularly review and update the '''Sales Cycle Length''' to reflect actual sales processes, leveraging insights from your sales team.
- Maintain an ongoing assessment of the '''Win Probability Factors''' and adjust as necessary to ensure they align with your evolving business needs.
- Create new deals instead of re-opening deals marked as Won or Lost, as reopening can lead to inaccurate data.


To maximize the effectiveness of the '''Win Probability''' feature, consider the following best practices:
== Common Use Cases with Examples ==
 
- **Lead Prioritization**: Sales teams can utilize the Win Probability values to focus efforts on high-priority leads with a higher chance of closing, thereby maximizing productivity.
* **Accurate Data Entry**: Consistently mark deals as '''Won''' or '''Lost''' to ensure data integrity. This data drives the calculations and influences future deal prioritization.
- **Sales Forecasting**: Accurate Win Probability assessments can aid in forecasting revenue and preparing for future sales strategies.
 
- **Performance Analysis**: By reviewing deals with varying Win Probability values, teams can analyze patterns and factors that contribute to successful deal closures.
* **Review Pipeline Settings Regularly**: Periodically check the '''Data Start Date''', '''Sales Cycle Length''', and '''Win Probability Factors''' to ensure they remain aligned with your evolving sales strategy.
 
* **Monitor Open Deals**: Pay attention to deals with low Win Probability scores. Regularly evaluate why these deals may be struggling and if any workflow changes can be applied.
 
* **Leverage Segmentation**: Use the segmentation ability to create targeted lists that allow your sales team to focus on high-potential deals.


== Troubleshooting ==
== Troubleshooting ==
 
If you encounter issues with the '''Win Probability''' feature:
In case you encounter issues with the '''Win Probability''' feature, consider the following:
- Verify that you have at least 100-150 deals in the pipeline marked as Won to see accurate calculations.
 
- Check that closed deals are correctly labeled as '''Won''' or '''Lost''' to influence ongoing calculations appropriately.
- If you see a '''Not yet calculated''' message, verify that you have at least 100-150 deals marked as '''Won''' in the relevant pipeline.
- If the Win Probability values are not displaying correctly, allow some time as there may be delays in updating values after significant changes.
- Ensure closed deals are appropriately classified as '''Won''' or '''Lost'''; any errors in this can mislead your calculations.
- If recent changes to the settings do not reflect immediately, recall that there might be a system delay that can last from 30 minutes to an hour.


== Related Features ==
== Related Features ==
 
- Consider learning more about [[Lead Scoring]] and its integration with Win Probability for enhanced insights into deal management.
* For enhanced sales performance, look into the [[Deals]] feature.
* The [[Automation]] feature can also complement your sales strategies by streamlining workflows.


== FAQ ==
== FAQ ==
1. **What should I do if my Win Probability is showing "Not yet calculated"?**
  - Ensure you have enough deals marked as Won to meet the minimum threshold of 100-150 for accurate calculations.


=== What is the main function of Win Probability? ===
2. **Can I change the Sales Cycle Length after deals have been marked?**
The '''Win Probability''' feature indicates the likelihood of successfully closing deals based on historical data and various factors that correlate to deals marked as '''Won'''.
  - Yes, you can adjust the Sales Cycle Length, and it may impact future Win Probability calculations.
 
=== How is Win Probability calculated? ===
It is calculated from factors specific to each pipeline, such as activity levels, deal stages, and client characteristics.
 
=== Why is my Win Probability showing "Not yet calculated"? ===
This primarily occurs if there are insufficient deals marked as '''Won''' or '''Lost''' in your pipeline, typically needing 100-150 sold deals to provide accurate metrics.


=== Can I adjust the Sales Cycle Length? ===
3. **Are there specific factors that affect the Win Probability?**
Yes, you can customize the duration that fits your sales cycle, but remember this may affect data retention for your Win Probability calculations.
  - Yes, there are over 100 factors, but only the 20 most relevant will be shown and used by default.


=== What happens if I reopen a closed deal? ===
4. **How will reopening a deal affect its Win Probability?**
Reopened deals will maintain a Win Probability score but will not contribute to future calculations for that pipeline. It's generally recommended to create a new deal instead.
  - Reopened deals will show a Win Probability value; however, they will no longer contribute to Win Probability calculations for that pipeline.


=== How often are the Win Probability calculations updated? ===
5. **How often is the Win Probability data updated?**
The model updates weekly on Saturdays, and changes made to settings might see earlier updates after a brief delay.
  - The model updates weekly on Saturdays, ensuring your calculations reflect the most current data.


=== How can I create segments based on Win Probability? ===
6. **Can I customize the factors that contribute to Win Probability?**
You can use segment conditions to locate deals within specific Win Probability ranges through the segment builder.
  - Yes, you can toggle specific factors On or Off based on their relevance to your business needs.


For additional guidance, consider visiting the ActiveCampaign help center to explore related resources and tutorials.
7. **How do I create a segment based on Win Probability?**
  - Use the segment builder, navigate to '''Deal Details''' and select conditions related to '''Win Probability''' to create your desired segments.
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Revision as of 14:04, 3 November 2025

```mediawiki Navigation: Main_Page > Deals > Deal Settings > Win Probability

Win Probability: Predicting which deals are most likely to win

Introduction

The Win Probability feature in ActiveCampaign is a powerful tool designed for sales teams to assess and prioritize deals based on their likelihood of closing successfully. With this feature, users can easily see a percentage value that signifies how likely a deal is to be won, enabling better allocation of time and resources to deals that have the highest chances of success. This predictive capability is crucial for effective sales strategies, ensuring that efforts are focused on the most promising opportunities, thereby optimizing the sales process and increasing revenue.

How to Access Win Probability Settings

To access the settings for Win Probability, follow these steps: 1. Log into your ActiveCampaign account. 2. Navigate to the Deals section by selecting it from the left menu. 3. Click on Deal Settings. 4. At the bottom of the page, you will find the Win Probability box, where you can access and configure the different settings for your pipelines.

Step-by-Step Instructions

Here is a detailed guide on configuring the Win Probability settings for your pipeline:

1. **Access Deal Settings**: As mentioned above, go to Deals and then click on Deal Settings. 2. **Locate Win Probability Box**: Scroll to the bottom of the page to find the Win Probability section. 3. **Select Pipeline**: Each tab in the Win Probability box corresponds to a pipeline in your account. You can click on each tab to adjust settings specific to that pipeline.

Configuration Settings

Within the Win Probability settings, several options can be customized:

1. **Data Start Date**: This is the date from which deal-specific data starts being collected for Win Probability calculations. 

  - Default: The date your pipeline was created. 
  - Update: Click into the date field and select a new date from the calendar.
  - Note: After modification, there is up to a 30-minute delay for the new calculations.

2. **Sales Cycle Length**: This setting reflects the longest duration it takes for your team to mark deals as Won or Lost. 

  - Default: 20 days. 
  - Update: Enter a new time duration, selecting from Days, Weeks, Months, or Years.
  - Caution: Setting this too short can lead to important deals being considered Lost if they exceed the established time frame, even if not marked as such.

3. **Win Probability Factors**: A list of factors informs the Win Probability calculations for deals in that pipeline. Typically, over 100 factors exist, but the 20 most relevant will be shown. 

  - Default: Factors are turned On. 
  - Adjusting: You can toggle specific factors Off if they are determined to be irrelevant to your business.
  - Note: Adjustments may take up to an hour before they reflect in calculations.

4. **Create Segments Using Win Probability Values**: You can create targeted segments based on specific Win Probability criteria. 

  - From the segment builder, go to Deal Details and select conditions related to Win Probability. 
  - Use the following operators:
    - Is
    - Is not
    - Greater than
    - Greater than or equal to
    - Less than
    - Less than or equal to

Configuration Options and Settings

Understanding the various configuration settings is essential for optimizing the use of Win Probability. Here are the key points to remember: - Ensure that closed deals are correctly marked as Won or Lost to improve the accuracy of calculations. - Maintain a healthy distribution of deals—ideally, have at least 100-150 deals marked as Won and some marked as Lost to facilitate accurate percentage calculations. - Acknowledge that deals marked as Won or Lost will no longer influence Win Probability calculations and will show as "Not yet calculated" for future computations.

Best Practices and Tips

To make the most of the Win Probability feature: - Regularly review and update the Sales Cycle Length to reflect actual sales processes, leveraging insights from your sales team. - Maintain an ongoing assessment of the Win Probability Factors and adjust as necessary to ensure they align with your evolving business needs. - Create new deals instead of re-opening deals marked as Won or Lost, as reopening can lead to inaccurate data.

Common Use Cases with Examples

- **Lead Prioritization**: Sales teams can utilize the Win Probability values to focus efforts on high-priority leads with a higher chance of closing, thereby maximizing productivity. - **Sales Forecasting**: Accurate Win Probability assessments can aid in forecasting revenue and preparing for future sales strategies. - **Performance Analysis**: By reviewing deals with varying Win Probability values, teams can analyze patterns and factors that contribute to successful deal closures.

Troubleshooting

If you encounter issues with the Win Probability feature: - Verify that you have at least 100-150 deals in the pipeline marked as Won to see accurate calculations. - Check that closed deals are correctly labeled as Won or Lost to influence ongoing calculations appropriately. - If the Win Probability values are not displaying correctly, allow some time as there may be delays in updating values after significant changes.

Related Features

- Consider learning more about Lead Scoring and its integration with Win Probability for enhanced insights into deal management.

FAQ

1. **What should I do if my Win Probability is showing "Not yet calculated"?** 

  - Ensure you have enough deals marked as Won to meet the minimum threshold of 100-150 for accurate calculations.

2. **Can I change the Sales Cycle Length after deals have been marked?** 

  - Yes, you can adjust the Sales Cycle Length, and it may impact future Win Probability calculations.

3. **Are there specific factors that affect the Win Probability?** 

  - Yes, there are over 100 factors, but only the 20 most relevant will be shown and used by default.

4. **How will reopening a deal affect its Win Probability?** 

  - Reopened deals will show a Win Probability value; however, they will no longer contribute to Win Probability calculations for that pipeline.

5. **How often is the Win Probability data updated?** 

  - The model updates weekly on Saturdays, ensuring your calculations reflect the most current data.

6. **Can I customize the factors that contribute to Win Probability?** 

  - Yes, you can toggle specific factors On or Off based on their relevance to your business needs.

7. **How do I create a segment based on Win Probability?** 

  - Use the segment builder, navigate to Deal Details and select conditions related to Win Probability to create your desired segments.

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